556
FXUS65 KFGZ 022307
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
407 PM MST TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND MAINLY
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA,
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY, IT MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN, WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE MOISTURE GETTING
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH LIQUID
FALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM AIR FILTER IN THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW HAS SHIFTED TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP THE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END. A RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH MIGHT
PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE TROUGH PLACEMENT IN LIMBO, IT HAS
STARTED TO LOOK WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY AS WE START THE NEW WEEK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT, ESPECIALLY
WITH HOW MUCH THE MODELS HAVE FLIPPED IN THE PAST DAY OR SO.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 03/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 04/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA SOUTH OF A KSOW-KSJN LINE UNTIL
02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING, THEN AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A KSOW-FOUR CORNERS
LINE. WINDS SW TO W AT 10-20 KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 04/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 06/00Z...VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SOUTH OF A KSOW-KSJN
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS SW TO W AT 10-20 KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PRIMARILY DRY, BUT SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING UP INTO THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
MINIMUM RH AS LOW AS 7% IN THE NORTHEAST DESERTS, TO AS HIGH AS 20%
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW-
W 10-20 MPH FRIDAY BUT PICK UP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT SW 15-30
MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES 5-15% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 10-
20% ON SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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