329
FXUS65 KFGZ 031013
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
313 AM MST WED JUN 03 2026
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM. EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN
APACHE COUNTY. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
LATE YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AT THE MOMENT, BUT INDICATED DEW POINTS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO MAY CHANGE THAT. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD IMPROVE IF OUTFLOWS AND GENERAL FLOW KEEPS ON THE
CURRENT TRAJECTORY.
A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS THE DRIVER FOR THE
MOISTURE INTRUSION, BUT THAT ONLY LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE DRY
SOUTHWESTERLIES TAKE OVER AGAIN. STEERING FLOW IS ALSO AN ISSUE FOR
ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT, AS MOST CONVECTION WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA AFTER INITIATION.
SO, FOR TODAY, WE EXPECT THE PATTERN DISCUSSED ABOVE TO BRING SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION TO SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES, MAYBE EVEN
OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT THURSDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL AREA WILL SHRINK AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK
EASTWARD. THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK A BIT BULLISH, BUT THE
PROVIDED NBM POPS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW. WE ARE HESITANT TO DESCRIBE
THIS AS AN ENTIRELY A HIGH-BASED EVENT, ANY INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE COULD NEGATE THAT IDEA. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A
HYBRID-TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP
CONCERNING HGHT PATTERNS NEXT WEEK, MAINLY BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW, KEEPING IT WARM
AND DRY LOOKS REASONABLE, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 03/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 04/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN 18-02Z
ALONG AND EAST OF A KSOW-FOUR CORNERS LINE. WINDS SW TO W AT 10-20
KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 04/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 06/06Z...VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SOUTH OF A KSOW-KSJN
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS SW TO W AT 10-20 KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PRIMARILY DRY. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
APACHE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN NAVAJO
COUNTY AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED WETTING RAIN
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY AND WARM, BECOMING BREEZY OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON FRIDAY, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, OVER THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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