585
FXUS65 KFGZ 170505
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 PM MST TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH
AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST PUTTING AN END TO ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER ARIZONA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW, AS CAN BE
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IS
INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS STATIONED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE. DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. FURTHER
NORTH, THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG IN DRIER AIR
FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS WILL BE
SURPRISINGLY GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON.
THIS IS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE MOUNTAIN/VALLEY FLOW
THAT DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SURFACE WINDS TEND TO
STRENGTHEN AND FLOW FROM THE LOWER DESERT TO THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER HEATING). WINDS WILL GENERALLY MODERATE
OVERNIGHT WHERE WEAK INVERSIONS SET IN. HOWEVER, DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES, WHERE TO FLOW IS DISRUPTED, INVERSIONS LIKELY
WILL NOT DEVELOP WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. IT WILL GET WARMER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE. IN ASSOCIATION, WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 110 DEGREES AT PHANTOM RANCH WITH AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING BELOW 4000 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FROM THE WEST. SUCH SYSTEMS NORMALLY
DELIVER DRIER AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEEKEND TROUGH WILL BE
NO EXCEPTION. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON BREEZES OF 10-20
MPH EACH DAY, ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL MOUNTAIN/VALLEY HEATING
MENTIONED ABOVE.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 17/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 18/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA
RETURNS ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KINW-KSJN LINE AFTER 18Z. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTS 30-40 KTS IN AND NEAR STORMS.
WINDS OVERNIGHT W 5-15 KTS REMAINING ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE
TERRAIN. WINDS BECOME W-SW 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 18/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 20/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH
OF A KFLG-KSJN LINE, THEN DRY ON FRIDAY. WINDS SW TO W 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOONS, MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED EACH NIGHT DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES. MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA EACH
DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY, BREEZY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY TO THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 5-15% EACH AFTERNOON. ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page