111
FXUS65 KFGZ 170945
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME DRYING TO OCCUR BUT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS THE HIGH SINKS TO THE SOUTH, THE MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY FOLLOW WITH DRIER AIR TAKING ITS PLACE. EXPECT THURSDAY
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND INCREASING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON WILL
AGAIN REACH BETWEEN 103-112 DEGREES TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. IF YOU HAVE PLANS
TO BE IN THE CANYON, THEN MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR VERY HOT
CONDITIONS AND TRY TO AVOID HIKING DURING THE DAY.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL DECOUPLE AND SEE LIGHTER
WINDS AT NIGHT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION, WILL BRING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA, WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
GRADIENTS DON'T LOOK OVERLY TIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH BUT EXPECT
AFTERNOON BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 17/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 18/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA
RETURNS ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KINW-KSJN LINE AFTER 18Z. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTS 30-40 KTS IN AND NEAR STORMS.
WINDS OVERNIGHT W 5-15 KTS REMAINING ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE
TERRAIN. WINDS BECOME W-SW 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 18/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 20/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH
OF A KFLG-KSJN LINE, THEN DRY ON FRIDAY. WINDS SW TO W 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOONS, MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH TODAY, THEN SHIFTING TO
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED EACH NIGHT DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES.
MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY, BREEZY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DECREASING ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 10-15 MPH.
MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 5-15% EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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