717
FXUS65 KFGZ 180506
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 PM MST WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINED STATIONED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER FROM AROUND THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FURTHER NORTH, THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE-40
CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN SURPRISINGLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO
REGIONAL-SCALE MOUNTAIN/VALLEY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING (SURFACE WINDS TEND TO FLOW FROM THE LOWER DESERT TO THE
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DAYTIME HEATING). WINDS WILL
GENERALLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT WHERE WEAK INVERSIONS SET IN.
HOWEVER, DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES, WHERE THE FLOW CAN BE
DISRUPTED, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS STATIONS
HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES. AT PHANTOM RANCH AND ELEVATIONS BELOW
4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON, HIGHS OF 108-112 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FROM THE WEST. THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH A DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA SPELLING THE END OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN ADDITION,
THE TROUGH WILL DELIVER A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND REGIONAL DIURNAL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON BREEZES OF 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 18/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 19/06Z
MAINLY VFR. ISO
SHRA/TSRA NEAR A P23-KFLG-KSOW-KJTC LINE FROM 20Z TO 02Z. ERRATIC,
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KTS IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS,
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS FROM 18Z TO 03Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 19/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 21/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW/W 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED EACH NIGHT DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. MINIMUM RH AROUND
10-20% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY, BREEZY, AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
SATURDAY, DECREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 5-15% EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...ZANKER
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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