395
FXUS65 KFGZ 180945
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST THU JUN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BUT MOISTURE IS SLOW TO LEAVE AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL GRADUALLY DROP BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
A LITTLE BIT OF A MOISTURE SURGE TODAY, WHICH WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. MAIN AREAS WILL
BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, BUT HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AND IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY MAY
BE THE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT ARE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE FROM HEATING UP AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SHOULD THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN TIME, WE MAY
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND INCREASING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AREAS BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH BETWEEN 103-112 DEGREES TODAY. AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF YOU HAVE PLANS
TO BE IN THE CANYON, THEN MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR VERY HOT
CONDITIONS AND TRY TO AVOID HIKING DURING THE DAY.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION, WILL BRING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA, WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
BUT THE REST OF THE REGION LOOK SO DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL END. GRADIENTS DON'T LOOK OVERLY TIGHT WITH THIS
TROUGH BUT EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
A BUILDING RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO
BRIEFLY NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS TUE/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 18/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 19/06Z
MAINLY VFR. ISO
SHRA/TSRA NEAR A P23-KFLG-KSOW-KJTC LINE FROM 20Z TO 02Z. ERRATIC,
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KTS IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS,
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS FROM 18Z TO 03Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 19/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 21/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS SW/W 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. AWAY FROM STORMS, WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED EACH NIGHT DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES. MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA
EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY, BREEZY, AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH SATURDAY, DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 5-15% EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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