075
FXUS65 KFGZ 190512
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 PM MST THU JUN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGER TODAY. DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY FROM
MORNING CLOUD COVER, MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR TODAY
AND CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, WILL BRING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA, WHICH
WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,
THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT ANY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL END. GRADIENTS DON'T LOOK OVERLY TIGHT WITH THIS
TROUGH, BUT EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REGION. A BUILDING RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO BRIEFLY NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK TO SOME OF THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 19/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 20/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS S/SW 5-10 KTS THROUGH 16Z, INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH 03Z. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 20/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 22/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS S/SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS ON SATURDAY, BECOMING W/SW
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY AND BREEZY WITH A BIT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
20-30 MPH BOTH DAYS. WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED EACH NIGHT DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN FEATURES. MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20% EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARIZONA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY, BREEZY AND WARM. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-
15% EACH DAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...ZANKER
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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