255
FXUS65 KFGZ 191730
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BREEZY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER LINGERING MOISTURE
BROUGHT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PAST WEEK, WE
BEGIN AN AGGRESSIVE DRYING TREND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO FALL 10-20
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY, AND PW RETURNS TO NEAR/BELOW-NORMAL FOR
JUNE. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE FROM WEST TO EAST, SO ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRIER AIR FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. EXPECT ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT. NIGHTTIME WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND (NORTHEAST)
OF TERRAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LAND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY AND ONWARD...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH FOLLOWING
THE TROUGHS DEPARTURE. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK. THE SETUP MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE
REGION, AND THERE IS MODERATE CONSENSUS WITHIN LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAT ABOVE NORMAL PW WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THEREAFTER.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 19/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 20/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z, AND THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 20/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 22/18Z...GUSTY SW WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, WINDS BECOMING 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS 18Z - 03Z SUN. ON SUNDAY, W/SW WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
DRY AND BREEZY WITH NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH GUSTING 20-30 MPH EACH DAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES.
MINIMUM RH IS 7-15% ON FRIDAY, THEN 5-10% ON SATURDAY. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AZ.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY AND TURNING A BIT WARMER. WINDS ARE
WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. MINIMUM RH
IS 4-8% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN 5-15% ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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