509
FXUS65 KFGZ 200510
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 PM MST FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BREEZY, AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE ALREADY BREEZY WINDS TODAY TO INCREASE A BIT MORE BY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY'S WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE, STRONGEST IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CRASH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 10% FOR ALL AREAS. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE CHUSKA MTNS/DEFIANCE PLATEAU FOR SATURDAY
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. SUNDAY AND MONDAY - HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA, THIS WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS
TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO INCREASE, REACHING 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAND CANYON WILL APPROACH EXTREME
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, ALLOWING FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
FORECASTS FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PEAK AROUND 0.70"-0.90"
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. POP VALUES
ARE 10-25% AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM -
WATCH FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID WEEK. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED HEAT RISK VALUES IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND AROUND PAGE. HIGHS WILL ALSO STAY
AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAND
CANYON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MID TO
LATE WEEK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 20/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 21/06Z
MAINLY VFR,
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG/KSEZ IN HZ/FU. WINDS S/SW 5-15
KTS THROUGH 16Z, THEN INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 21/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 23/06Z...MAINLY VFR, PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG/KSEZ IN HZ/FU. WINDS W/SW 10-15 KTS UP TO
20 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND IS
UNDERWAY AND WILL BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY TO 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY WITH
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WINDS DECREASE A BIT SUNDAY
BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY AND BREEZY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS RETURNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ006.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR AZZ111-113-114.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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