592
FXUS65 KFGZ 201111
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
411 AM MST SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL DRY, BREEZY, AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
ALREADY BREEZY WINDS OBSERVED FRIDAY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
TODAY'S WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE, STRONGEST IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CRASH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 10% FOR ALL AREAS. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE CHUSKA MTNS/DEFIANCE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA, ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS
TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO INCREASE, REACHING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
GRAND CANYON WILL REACH TOWARD THE LOWER 110S FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, PROMPTING AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO BE ISSUED.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE
INFLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER
FORECASTS FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PEAK AROUND 0.70"-0.90"
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED HEAT RISK VALUES IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND AROUND PAGE. CONTINUED WARNING
CRITERIA FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAND CANYON WILL IN PART DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER, WHICH RETURNS TO SOME EXTENT BY WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 20/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 21/12Z
MAINLY VFR,
PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR KSEZ IN HZ/FU. WINDS S/SW
5-15 KTS THROUGH 16Z AND AFTER 03Z, OTHERWISE INCREASING DURING
THE DAYTIME TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 21/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 23/12Z...MAINLY VFR, PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG/KSEZ IN HZ/FU. WINDS W/SW 10-15 KTS UP TO
20 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH 5-
10%. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY,
STILL EXPECT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WINDS DECREASE
ON SUNDAY, BECOMING WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH MINIMUM RH 4-8%.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY ON MONDAY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST 10-
20 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH IS 5-10% ON MONDAY, BECOMING 8-13% ON TUESDAY,
THEN 10-20% ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ006.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
MST /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ111-113-114.
PUBLIC...ZANKER
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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