164
FXUS65 KFGZ 210512
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 PM MST SAT JUN 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL DRY, BREEZY, AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
STARTING TOMORROW, CENTERING OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/MEXICO
BORDER REGION. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IN THE 594-597DM RANGE, DEFINITELY STRONG BUT
NOT UNHEARD OF THIS TIME OF YEAR AS LATE JUNE EARLY JULY OFTEN
SEES SOME OF THE WARMEST, IF NOT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLAY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY EARLY WEEK WHERE IT'LL PEAK
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 110 DOWN IN THE DEPTHS OF THE GRAND CANYON
WHERE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE RIGHT NOW WILL ALSO GIVE US SOME GOOD DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 50 DEGREES IN PLACES LIKE
SOUTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON AND BELLEMONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH KEEPING THE AREA OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW
SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH WILL HELP DROP THE TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. IT COULD ALSO BRING
SOME HIGH ELEVATION AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, CURRENT POPS
BETWEEN 10-30% WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY A BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL HELP SUPPRESS THE RIDGE A BIT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL SWITCH
WESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR AND SOME
STRONGER WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT WEEKEND CLOSELY TO SEE
IF FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 21/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 22/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PERIOD OF HZ/FU POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR KSEZ DUE TO A
LOCAL WILDFIRE. ADDITIONAL HZ/FU IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG AFTER
18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W-SW
WINDS 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 22/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 24/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PERIOD OF HZ/FU POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING FOCUSED OVER KSEZ OVERNIGHT DUE TO A LOCAL
WILDFIRE. SOUTH THROUGH WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO EASTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM
MST/7 PM MDT. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. VERY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH MINIMUM RH 4-10%.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH
10-15% ON TUESDAY, THEN 15-20% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ006.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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