954
FXUS65 KFGZ 211108
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
408 AM MST SUN JUN 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL DRY, BREEZY, AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WE REMAIN ENVELOPED IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED WIND PROTECTED AREAS AT HIGH
ELEVATION WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TOUCH
FREEZING. THINGS WILL WARM QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES, WITH NEAR-
NORMAL JUNE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT RELAXES AND FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE 4-8% RANGE, HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WINDS COMES DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP US BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ.
STARTING TOMORROW, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GRAND CANYON ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH 102-112F. HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN EXTENDING THE
WARNING ANY LONGER.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE BEGINS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN PW PEAKS AT 0.70"-0.90" ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO
20-40% ON WEDNESDAY, PEAKING AT 25-50% ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AZ
ON THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY AND SWEEP OUT THE MOISTURE
ONCE AGAIN. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 21/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 22/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PERIOD OF LIGHT MORNING HZ/FU POSSIBLE NEAR KSEZ DUE TO
A LOCAL WILDFIRE. ADDITIONAL HZ/FU IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG
AFTER 18Z. W-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 22/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 24/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HZ/FU POSSIBLE NEAR KFLG DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING FOCUSED OVER KSEZ OVERNIGHT DUE TO A LOCAL
WILDFIRE. S-W WINDS 10-20 KTS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BRING AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WARM
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH MINIMUM RH 4-10%.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% OVER ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH
10-15% ON TUESDAY, THEN 15-20% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ006.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...ZANKER
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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