108
FXUS65 KFGZ 220458
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
958 PM MST SUN JUN 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE STARTS MOVING IN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING AS SOON AS TUESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BECOMING A POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AREA BUILDS IN THIS WEEK BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, ESPECIALLY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO NEAR 110 AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
GRAND CANYON AND THE LOW DESERTS OF SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BOTTOM OF THE GRAND
CANYON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN EXTENSION INTO WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND THE RETURN FLOW OF THE HIGH BEGINS
POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A 10-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SEEING A 20-50% CHANCE OF
STORMS BY THURSDAY. THE EXTRA MOISTURE SHOULD START MODERATING THE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND SHUT THE MONSOON MOISTURE OFF FOR THE WEEKEND. IT
WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND AS THE TROUGH BRUSHES BY,
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, GUSTING TO
40 MPH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS, A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS LIKELY BEING ISSUED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION...MONDAY 22/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 23/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SW AT 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z. LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 23/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 25/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. LOOK FOR W-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY, BECOMING
LIGHTER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. VERY DRY ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-
20%) TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH MINIMUM RH 4-10% MONDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-20% TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED VERY WARM WEDNESDAY, THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER. BREEZY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, PEAKING ON THURSDAY AT 20-50%. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, INCREASING
TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH 12-25%. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BY FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ006.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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