292
FXUS65 KFGZ 221710
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE STARTS MOVING IN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING AS SOON AS TUESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRIER AND WINDIER TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND,
ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AREA BUILDS IN THIS WEEK BRINGING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TO NEAR 110 AT THE BOTTOM OF
THE GRAND CANYON AND THE LOW DESERTS OF SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BOTTOM OF THE
GRAND CANYON TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN EXTENSION INTO WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLE.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND THE RETURN FLOW OF THE HIGH BEGINS
POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS PRESENTS A 10-20% CHANCE OF STORMS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A
20-40% CHANCE ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SEEING A 20-50% CHANCE OF STORMS BY
THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY. THE EXTRA MOISTURE SHOULD START MODERATING THE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND SHUT THE MONSOON MOISTURE OFF FOR THE WEEKEND. IT
WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND AS THE TROUGH BRUSHES BY,
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS, A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS LIKELY BEING ISSUED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION...MONDAY 22/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 23/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 25KTS
DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 23/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 25/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIEST
STORMS. WINDS SW-W 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
BREEZY WITH AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER. VERY DRY ON MONDAY THEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH EACH DAY, THOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH MINIMUM RH 4-10%
MONDAY, INCREASING TO 10-20% TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THEREAFTER. BREEZY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PEAKING ON THURSDAY AT 20-50%.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH 12-25%. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON FRIDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...ZANKER
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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