388
FXUS65 KFGZ 222319
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
419 PM MST MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE STARTS MOVING IN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING
AS SOON AS TUESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRY AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR EL PASO WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
SHOULD PEAK TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY WED/THU DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE MOVING IN. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH, STARTING TUESDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON WHERE AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
CANYON WILL REACH NEAR 112F, HIKING AT THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
CANYON IS DANGEROUS AND DISCOURAGED IN THIS HEAT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE A BIT MORE, WITH MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 0.80" TO 1.00" AREA WIDE WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH POPS UP TO 30-50% MOSTLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - STRONG LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND,
LEADING TO A HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. COMBINED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME NEW LIGHTNING-CAUSED FIRE STARTS THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS,
THIS FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS CONCERNING. IN OUR LATEST FORECASTS,
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 40-50 MPH SATURDAY AND THEN 35-45 MPH SUNDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN US AND PUSHES THE RIDGE WELL TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 23/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 24/00Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISO SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND NORTH OF KFLG-KSOW
LINE AFTER 18Z WITH BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 24/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 26/00Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND A (20-40%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IS THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EACH DAY,
THOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES 10-20% TUESDAY. 15-25% WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK ON THURSDAY AT
20-50% WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD. BY FRIDAY THINGS DRY BACK OUT AND WINDS PICK UP
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ALMOST A CERTAINTY FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SW-W 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THURSDAY, SW-W 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
FRIDAY AND SW-W 20-30 MPH, GUSTS 40-45 MPH ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES 15-25% THURSDAY, 10-20% FRIDAY, 5-15% SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page