758
FXUS65 KFGZ 070543
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1043 PM MST MON JUL 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN AZ INTO
NEW MEXICO, COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS OPENS A WINDOW FOR DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING THE 40S FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AZ. THE MOST IDEAL CORRIDOR FOR STORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN AZ. CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MESA,
THOUGH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER WEST IN THE COMING
DAYS, BUT THIS WILL BATTLE AGAINST THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND CENTERS TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL KILL ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN AZ FOR THE SHORT
TERM, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GREATLY DECLINE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A MORE FAVORABLE
MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND POPS BEGIN TO REBOUND.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND CANYON BELOW 4000 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH THEREAFTER THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 07/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 08/06Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW -SHRA NE OF A KSJN-KPGA LINE THROUGH AROUND 08Z
THEN ENDING OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA,
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TUE INTO TUE EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SOUTH
OF A KINW-KRQE LINE. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT, THEN SW 10-20
KTS AFTER 18Z TUE. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. LIGHT
SMOKE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFLG AND KSEZ FROM A WILDFIRE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 08/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 10/06Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WED
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES,
DECREASING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20
KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT
AND DRY, WITH DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. LIMITED MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES MAY SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF ON TUESDAY BUT THEN BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGION. EXPECT DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20
GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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