019
FXUS65 KFGZ 070815
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
115 AM MST TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR MOST, MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA EACH DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER SOME
DRYING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT
AS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THERE ARE TWO MECHANISMS FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS POINT, THE
DEEP AND LAYERED SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DRIVE WESTWARD EACH EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
FOR TUESDAY EAST OF THE I-17 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME STORMS CREEPING AS
FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF/PAYSON LATE IN THE DAY. THIS PATTERN REPEATS
WEDNESDAY AND MAY EVEN MAKE ANOTHER PUSH WESTWARD, ALTHOUGH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RIDGE COLLAPSES A BIT AND STEERING FLOW
PUSHES SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOL TEMPORARILY SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH
MAYBE THE ONLY ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE RAPIDLY REBOUNDS, STRENGTHENS AND
THEN MOVES INTO A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON. THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE OUR OFFICIAL START, AS NEXT
WEEK IS LOOKING ROBUST.
AS THE MOISTURE POOL WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE CWA, WE EXPECT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, POSSIBLY NOT PEAKING UNTIL SATURDAY.
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE GRAND CANYON HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS.
THAT IS ABOUT IT, MOISTURE TEASES US FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN, IT
SURELY LOOKS LIKE THE MONSOON BEGINS. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...TUESDAY 07/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 08/06Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW -SHRA NE OF A KSJN-KPGA LINE THROUGH AROUND 08Z
THEN ENDING OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA,
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TUE INTO TUE EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SOUTH
OF A KINW-KRQE LINE. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT, THEN SW 10-20
KTS AFTER 18Z TUE. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. LIGHT
SMOKE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFLG AND KSEZ FROM A WILDFIRE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 08/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 10/06Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WED
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES,
DECREASING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20
KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT
AND DRY, WITH DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, POSSIBLY GENERATING ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR
WEST AS A FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON LINE EACH AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ACTIVITY STARTS MOVING BACK
WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10
TO 20, GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ006 BELOW 4000
FEET.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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