851
FXUS65 KFGZ 080551
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1051 PM MST TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH STORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RAMP UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS
HEAT IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER CONTINUES
TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA, AND STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN EASTERN AZ. STORM INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM STORMS. LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW, BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER SENSITIVE AREAS (BURN SCARS). HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AS FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF AND THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TODAY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW, THOUGH
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND INTRODUCE A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FLATTENED RIDGE CENTERS TO OUR WEST.
THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. BY
THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND RAPIDLY SHIFT
TO OUR NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL ENTER A
FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS PERIOD!
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS
THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 110 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GRAND CANYON BELOW 4000 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 08/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 09/06Z
PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD -SHRA EAST OF KPGA-KINW THROUGH AROUND 08Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z-20Z WED, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KPAN-KINW-KRQE LINE. WINDS LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AND THEN SW 10-20 KTS AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 09/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 11/06Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE SE OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS SW-W 10-20 KTS EACH
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT
AND DRY, WITH DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS A
FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON LINE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO HEBER
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS MOVING BACK WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY BECOMING LIGHTER AT 5-15 MPH AND MORE
VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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