905
FXUS65 KFGZ 081805
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1105 AM MST WED JUL 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR MOST, MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY, BUT EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN, MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE GRAND CANYON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS STARTED TO FLATTEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST THIS MORNING. BEFORE THIS FULLY DEVELOPS, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE DECENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, BUT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE STILL RESIDES SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ANY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THIS AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED, YET FAIRLY STRONG STORMS.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RIDGE POSITION TO OUR WEST WILL DRIVE
MOST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA, WITH THE ONLY ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE RAPIDLY REBOUNDS, STRENGTHENS AND
THEN MOVES INTO A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON. THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE OUR OFFICIAL START, AS ALL OF
NEXT WEEK IS NOW LOOKING QUITE ROBUST.
AS THE MOISTURE POOL WOBBLES IN AND OUT OF THE CWA, WE EXPECT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, POSSIBLY NOT PEAKING UNTIL SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE GRAND CANYON IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS, BUT ARE NOT IN ANY EHW PRODUCTS.
THAT IS ABOUT IT, MOISTURE TEASES US FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN, IT
SURELY LOOKS LIKE THE MONSOON BEGINS. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 08/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 09/18Z
PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA, PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLD CELLS MAY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS A KFLG/KPAN LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE SW 10-20 KTS THROUGH 03Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 09/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 11/18Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE INVOF THE WHITE MTNS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 KTS EACH DAY, LIGHT AND VRB OR
TERRAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT
AND DRY, WITH DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS FAR
WEST AS A FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY
MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER STORMS EITHER DAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE ACTIVITY STARTS MOVING BACK WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20
MPH, GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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