251
FXUS65 KFGZ 082036
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
136 PM MST WED JUL 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT
IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ,
INCLUDING GLEN AND MARBLE CANYONS AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GRAND CANYON.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN AZ HAS FLATTENED AND IS RETROGRADING TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY REMAINS A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY, WITH SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FIRING OVER
EASTERN AZ. STORMS INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, THOUGH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM STORMS REMAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SENSITIVE AREAS (BURN
SCARS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FLATTENED RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO OUR WEST.
THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH UNDER
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW, THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND RAPIDLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD BE A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN PW APPROACHES THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING
UP ON SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS PERIOD!
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL JULY
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED EACH DAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE
GRAND CANYON BELOW 4000 FT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH DAY AT PHANTOM
RANCH. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MARBLE AND
GLEN CANYONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO
REACH MODERATE-EXTREME HEATRISK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 08/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 09/18Z
PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA, PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLD CELLS MAY PUSH AS FAR WEST AS A KFLG/KPAN LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE SW 10-20 KTS THROUGH 03Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 09/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 11/18Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE INVOF THE WHITE MTNS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-20 KTS EACH DAY, LIGHT AND VRB OR
TERRAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOT, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
STORM. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY, BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 5-
15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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