990
FXUS65 KFGZ 091751
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1051 AM MST THU JUL 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR MOST, MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RAMP UP OVER THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING BACK WEST AND NORTH
AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON AND THEN GLEN CANYON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
CHANGES IN STEERING FLOW AND THE INFLUX OF DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO
FAIRLY QUIET AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. THESE
CHANGES ARE BRING DRIVEN BY A WESTWARD RELOCATION AND FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES PERSIST
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, MEANING THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE FULLY OVERCOME BY THESE CHANGES AND CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PERHAPS EVEN SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE RECENTERS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS DRAMATICALLY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE MOISTURE POOL THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND MONSOON 2026 WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE, ANY LOCATION THAT DOES NOT SEE
RAINFALL OR ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM, EVEN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. EHW PRODUCTS FOR THE GRAND CANYON AND GLEN CANYON
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A RESULT. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY THAT OTHER LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE UNCOMFORTABLE
AT TIMES, BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY WILL TEMPER THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON 2026 SHOULD KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER, LIKELY ELIMINATING THE NEED
FOR HEAT PRODUCTS.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 09/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 10/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z INVOF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH
03Z, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 10/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA INVOF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR
FRIDAY, SPREADING A BIT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS, OTHERWISE DAYTIME WINDS
ARE SW-W 10-20KTS ON FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB ON SATURDAY.
WINDS LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MOST AREAS WILL BE HOT AND
DRY, WITH DAILY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION EACH AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTION
OUTSIDE OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA IS UNLIKELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REMAINING HOT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY, THEN PUSHING WEST AND NORTH AND
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
FROM CONVECTION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SATURDAY, REMAINING LIGHT, 5 TO 15 MPH, BUT TRENDING SOUTHERLY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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