045
FXUS65 KFGZ 092050
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 PM MST THU JUL 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY, HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RAMP UP OVER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING BACK
WEST AND NORTH AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT. DANGEROUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON THROUGH
SUNDAY, AND FOR GLEN CANYON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE REGION
AS A LARGE FLATTENED RIDGE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. DEWPOINTS AND
PW ACROSS THE REGION HAS FALLEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN AZ. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
TODAY, WITH SOME WEAKER AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.
STRONGER STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY COULD STILL SEE SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW, AND FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER SENSITIVE BURN
SCARS. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH PW
BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER AROUND EAST AND SOUTHEAST AZ TO BRING CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE RIDGE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS AND REBOUNDS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND,
AND SETS UP IN A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY, BUT
REALLY RAMPS UP BY SUNDAY-MONDAY. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
0.9-1.0 INCHES OR GREATER, AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR FLAGSTAFF
CLIMATOLOGY. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO
ALLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO AZ.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH STRONG RIDGING IN
THE VICINITY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GRAND CANYON BELOW 4000 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH DAY AT PHANTOM RANCH. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND HEATRISK IN HIGH-EXTREME THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 09/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 10/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z INVOF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH
03Z, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 10/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA INVOF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR
FRIDAY, SPREADING A BIT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR STORMS, OTHERWISE DAYTIME WINDS
ARE SW-W 10-20KTS ON FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB ON SATURDAY.
WINDS LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND
DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30
MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH ON
SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES NUDGING
FURTHER WEST OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. WINDS MAINLY
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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