897
FXUS65 KFGZ 101735
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1035 AM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON AND THE PAGE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS EXPANDING WESTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY ON SATURDAY. A SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINNING SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS REPOSITIONING WILL ESTABLISH A FAVORABLE PATTERN
TO TRANSPORT DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR
TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SATURDAY, THE NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS
CONTINUES FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WHILE A LOW 10-20% CHANCE
EXPANDS WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. LIGHTING AND OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR SATURDAY'S
STORMS. ON SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL INITIATE A MORE ROBUST MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS (30-60%) FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH,
THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
NEAR 1.0 INCH OR ABOVE AREA-WIDE, FUELING SLOW-MOVING STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SENSITIVE AREAS AND RECENT
BURN SCARS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT PHANTOM RANCH ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
111-116 DEGREES. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL EXPAND TO GLEN AND MARBLE
CANYONS, INCLUDING PAGE, ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY NEXT WEEK,
THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NUDGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD,
EFFECTIVELY REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 10/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 11/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN
REGION BETWEEN 18Z-03Z COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR. WINDS SW 5-15KTS,
GUSTS 20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 11/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 13/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY RIM SOUTHWARD, BUT SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHUSKAS AS WELL. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS SATURDAY,
S-SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS SUNDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TODAY (20-40%), WITH LOW CHANCES (10-20%) EXPANDING TO INCLUDE
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY ON SATURDAY. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST RIDGE WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 10-20 MPH. ON
SATURDAY, WINDS ARE MORE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN, BUT OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 5-20%.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GULF MOISTURE SURGE FOCUSES STORMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SUNDAY, WITH A THREAT OF POWERFUL
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STORMS TURN WET AND SLOW-MOVING,
TRANSITIONING HAZARDS TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-25%
SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30% MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...RR
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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