206
FXUS65 KFGZ 102005
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
105 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY
MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER
STORM CHANCES AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
STATE.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT'S BEEN GIVING
US THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL SLOWLY START
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE LOWER PARTS OF THE GRAND
CANYON AS WELL AS MARBLE CANYON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OVER 110 DEGREES IN THE BOTTOM OF THESE
CANYONS. A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT IN SATURDAY FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE RIM BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE LACKING A BIT, WHICH MAKES THINGS FAVORABLE FOR LESS RAIN BUT
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS UNDER OR NEAR THE STORMS.
STARTING SUNDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST WHICH PUTS THE RETURN FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND ALLOWS
FOR A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. CURRENT MODELS SHOW STORMS FIRING OFF THE RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH SOME FIRING OF STORMS
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AS WELL. THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE A LITTLE WETTER WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS SO HEAVIER RAINS
ARE A BETTER POSSIBILITY. LOWER DESERTS COULD SEE SOME STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE RIM.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY STORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COVERAGE AND STORM INITIATION TIMES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
ACTIVITY AND LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
WEEKS END WITH ALL THE ADDED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS RAIN PRODUCTION WILL BE MORE
EFFICIENT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENS ALONG WITH AREAS
POTENTIALLY RECEIVING REPEATED DOWNPOURS DAY AFTER DAY. BE CAREFUL
WITH ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE RECREATING
NEAR CANYONS AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 10/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 11/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN
REGION BETWEEN 18Z-03Z COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR. WINDS SW 5-15KTS,
GUSTS 20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 11/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 13/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY RIM SOUTHWARD, BUT SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHUSKAS AS WELL. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS SATURDAY,
S-SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS SUNDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
REMAINING HOT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREA ON SATURDAY, SPREADING FURTHER WEST AND NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION, BEST CHANCES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD.
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE, TURNING A BIT COOLER WITH WINDS
MAINLY SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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