563
FXUS65 KFGZ 111112
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
412 AM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THIS WEEKEND. ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY, MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BRINGING BETTER STORM CHANCES AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER TODAY AND THEN BE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR TODAY, THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SO FAR FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND
CANYON AND ALSO THE MARBLE/GLEN CANYON/PAGE AREAS. MOISTURE IS
LACKING NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
20S TODAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM, SOME LIMITED MOISTURE
REMAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BY
SUNDAY, BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH CONTINUES ITS
NORTHWARD SHIFT, ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, PUSHING TOWARD THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BRING A THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-50
MPH, WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THREAT OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH DIAMETER HAIL. STORM MOTION OF 15-20 MPH WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL, THOUGH A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI/GILA.
A SIMILAR SETUP LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY, WITH BETTER STORM
CHANCES SPREADING A BIT FARTHER NORTH BY TUESDAY.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO
REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE IS AROUND 1.00" OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NEAR 1.50" OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE
80-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE
TYPICAL HAZARDS OF THE MONSOON - DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK FOR MOST
AREAS DUE TO THE MOISTURE RETURN. AREAS ALONG THE UT/AZ LINE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
MOISTURE IS SLOWER TO REACH THAT AREA.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 11/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO -SHRA/TSRA 18Z TO 04Z, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KFLG-KSJN
LINE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS VRB
5-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 12/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 14/12Z...MAINLY VFR. SCT
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY, PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A KGCN-KINW-
KSJN LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TS. WINDS SW-SE 5-15 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
REMAINING HOT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA TODAY, INCREASING AND SPREADING FURTHER WEST
AND NORTH ON SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST AROUND
5-15 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION, BEST CHANCES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WHERE WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE,
TURNING A BIT COOLER WITH WINDS MAINLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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