431
FXUS65 KFGZ 111947
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1247 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THIS WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY,
MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER
STORM CHANCES AND MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST SETTING UP IN A POSITION MORE FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON
MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH MONDAY BEFORE COVERING
MOST OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ABOVE AVERAGE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LAST AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY
BEFORE THE ADDED HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER MODERATES THE HEAT WITH
A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYONS AND
MARBLE CANYON UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
FOR SUNDAY STORMS FORM ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND PUSH OUT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ELEVATION DESERTS. WITH LOW
LEVEL LAYERS STILL BEING ON THE DRY SIDE, DOWNBURST WINDS TOWARDS
SEVERE LEVELS ARE A POSSIBILITY. CURRENTLY STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MOST OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
GILA COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40, BUT THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY COME INTO PLAY ON LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND OVERTURNING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OCCURS SUNDAY A SIMILAR SETUP LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MONDAY,
STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING WEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE ON MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING MOISTENED UP AND A BIT MORE
CONDUCIVE TO HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HALVES OF ARIZONA. BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE STATE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 11/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. WINDS VARIABLE
5-15KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 12/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 14/18Z...MAINLY VFR BUT
MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY BOTH DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
SOUTH OF A KGCN-KINW-KSJN LINE. WINDS SW-SE 5-15KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
REMAINING HOT. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST EACH DAY. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS 5-15 MPH SOUTH THROUGH WEST
ON SUNDAY SHIFTING TO SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION, BEST CHANCES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WHERE WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE,
TURNING A BIT COOLER WITH WINDS MAINLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005-
006.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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