382
FXUS65 KFGZ 121150
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
450 AM MST SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK, BRINGING BETTER STORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY, BRINGING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR TO MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF (92),
WINSLOW & PAGE (104), AND PRESCOTT (98). THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD TO COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK. THOUGH IT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, IT IS FORECAST TO BE SO STRONG (500MB HEIGHT 600 DAM)
THAT EVEN ON THE FRINGES OF THE HIGH IN ARIZONA, AREAS THAT DON'T
RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE AREAS NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHERE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER,
AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE TODAY
AND MONDAY, MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AND
FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM. A STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
AZ SATURDAY EVENING HAS HELPED PUSH SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, THE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN YAVAPAI/GILA
COUNTIES AND MID-UPPER 40S ALONG THE RIM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW STORMS FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AROUND MID DAY TO 2 PM, THEN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH GILA/YAVAPAI DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY
AND HOT/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A THREAT
WITH WIDESPREAD 30-50 MPH GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST TO 60
MPH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED 1/2 TO 1 INCH
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MONDAY'S SETUP IS QUITE SIMILAR, SO WE
COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS STORM EVOLUTION WITH THE SAME AREAS
TARGETED. TUESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDS TO COVER AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA, POSSIBLY GIVING AREAS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM A SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE GRAND ENSEMBLE IS AROUND 1.00" OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NEAR 1.50" OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 80-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL HAZARDS OF THE MONSOON -
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 12/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 13/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED 19Z TO 04Z, MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF A KGCN-KFLG-KJTC LINE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS INCLUDING KSEZ
AND KPRC. WINDS SW-SE 5-15 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 13/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 15/12Z...MAINLY VFR. SCT
SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD SOUTH AND WEST OF A
KGCN-KFLG-KJTC LINE MONDAY BUT EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MORE OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS SW-SE
5-15 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
REMAINING HOT. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. STRONG
STORMS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS 5-15 MPH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TODAY
SHIFTING TO SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION, BEST CHANCES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD WHERE WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE,
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS MAINLY SOUTHWEST 5-15
MPH OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ005-006.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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