693
FXUS65 KFGZ 131044
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
344 AM MST MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK BRINGING BETTER STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE,
HOT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY ENDING UP TOWARDS
SEASONAL AVERAGES LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNED TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS OF GILA AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ORIGINATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT QUICKLY MOVED WESTWARD IN THE MODERATE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY,
BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER,
PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOWS. ALSO, AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY SLOW DOWN HEATING
LATER TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING OFF TO THE WEST, JUST NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. OTHERWISE, THE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO
UTAH. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE COMING
WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE POSSIBLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS REMAINS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO
THE REGION, WITH DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN INSTABILITY AND SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STEERING FLOW DICTATING WHICH AREAS ARE TARGETED. A
PARTICULARLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE EAST. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK FOR MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN AZ TODAY AND TUESDAY WHERE
IT WILL BE A BIT DRIER. FROM PAGE THROUGH THE NAVAJO NATION,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
COOLING DOWN MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION...MONDAY 13/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 14/12Z
SOME ISOLATED
SHRA WILL CONTINUE WEST OF A KFLG-KPRC LINE THROUGH 14Z WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 18Z, SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING WESTWARD AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECLINE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 14/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 16/12Z...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH DAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-04Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAYTIME
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SW-SE 5-15KTS, BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC
DOWNDRAFT WINDS OF 30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A 10-30% CHANCE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
STORM ACTIVITY, WINDS S-SE 5-15 MPH TODAY, S-W 5-15 MPH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EACH DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WINDS OUTSIDE STORM ACTIVITY S-SW 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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