764
FXUS65 KFGZ 270523
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1023 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA/UTAH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM A PRESCOTT TO
FOUR CORNERS LINE NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS LINE SUNNY SKIES
ALLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO PROCEED AS NORMAL. WE'RE
THINKING THAT NORTH OF THE PRESCOTT TO FOUR CORNERS LINE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO ISOLATED AND WEAK STORMS.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE, AS SHOWERS AND STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH SO THE STORM MOTION
WILL BE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THIS STORM MOTION WILL INHIBIT
ANY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS FROM MOVING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTH ACROSS GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES (AS THEY DID ON SATURDAY).
YET STILL, WHERE IT IS SUNNY ENOUGH, STORMS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF. STORMS ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE LINE WILL
BE STRONGER WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE,
ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING LEAVING BEHIND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY LIGHT WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING
BELOW 4000 FEET FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO PAGE.
FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WOBBLE IN PLACE WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN ROLLING OUT INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EACH DAY WILL
BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT SO NO SENSE GETTING INTO THOSE DETAILS. THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE WILL BE THAT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO HAVE A CAPPING/STABILIZING INFLUENCE WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
(AT BEST) LEVELS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT OVER ARIZONA.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...MODELS INSIST THAT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT OVER ARIZONA. WHILE
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WE CAN PROBABLY EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON
ACTIVITY, GENERALLY OF THE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
VARIETY. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FURTHER
WITH EXTREME HEAT RETURNING TO OUR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
AVIATION...MONDAY 27/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 28/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA 18Z-03Z, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
5-15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 28/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 30/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-03Z EACH DAY, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
A LOW TO MODERATE MONSOONAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN STORM THREATS. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT
WARM TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN MONSOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASINGLY HOT
TEMPERATURES. STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE BY FRIDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL SEE A DECREASING
TREND TO 15-25% BY FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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