406
FXUS65 KFGZ 271124
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
424 AM MST MON JUL 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SOME
DRYING DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, BUT
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RISING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE WANDERING WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW HAS ALLOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO STAY IN PLACE AND
CURRENT PW VALUES HAVE NOT REALLY SHOWN ANY APPRECIABLE DRYING
TRENDS, AS OF YET.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE PEAKS TODAY, BEFORE ACTUALLY WEAKENING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THE BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE HIGH
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE WEAK CAPPING OVER OUR AREA TO RELAX TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY RAMP UP ACTIVITY COMPARED TO TODAY. AS THE
HIGH RETROGRADES LATER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT DRIER AIR AND STRONGER
CAPPING TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
FOR TODAY, WE EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWEST. OUTFLOWS MAY PUSH SOME ACTIVITY OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
INTO EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN YAVAPAI
COUNTY AND THE ZONES NE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
QUIET.
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS LATER THIS WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE, ESPECIALLY AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR BECOMES MORE
SCARCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TOWARD THE WARMEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR BY NEXT WEEKEND. BUT, FOR NOW, WE WILL STAY FREE OF
HEADLINES AS ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS JUST UNDER CRITERIA FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION...MONDAY 27/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 28/12Z
EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM 18Z-03Z, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS OR NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SFC WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS/OUTFLOWS WILL BE LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 28/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 30/12Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM 18Z-03Z EACH DAY, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS OR NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE ENHANCED ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SFC WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS/OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL, POSSIBLY THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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