206
FXUS65 KFGZ 301128
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
428 AM MST THU JUL 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF
TODAY AND THEN BECOMES ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE ACTIVITY SLOWS DOWN, EXPECT OUR DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR, LIKELY REACHING THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR
THIS YEAR.
DISCUSSION
THE HIGH TO OUR EAST BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOWLY INTRODUCES
DRIER, MID-LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE, ACTIVITY WILL SLOW DOWN. WE
DON'T EXPECT A TOTAL STOP, BUT IT WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH MAY RETURN TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION BY NEXT WEEK, WITH
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW RETURNING, BUT MUCH CAN CHANGE IN A WEEK AND
WE WILL SEE.
ADDITIONALLY, ONCE THE HIGH RELOCATES AND STRENGTHENS, ALONG WITH
THE MONSOON PAUSE/SLOW DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR. WE EXPECT MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE VARIOUS
HEAT PRODUCTS THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED REMAIN APPROPRIATE.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 30/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 31/12Z
EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE 19Z TO 03Z, MAINLY INVOF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 35-45KTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SFC WINDS OUTSIDE OF
STORMS W-SW5-15KTS, IN THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 31/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 02/12Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES INVOF THE WHITE MTNS. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
35-45KTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SFC WINDS OUTSIDE OF
STORMS VRB5-15KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT TRENDING TOWARD WESTERLY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
5 TO 15 MPH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN A SHARP CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING ON THURSDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL A BIT EACH DAY, AS THE AIR MASS STARTS TO
DRY OUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A CONTINUED DOWNTURN IN MONSOONAL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MAINLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST CONDITIONS SO
FAR THIS YEAR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST
/9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005-038, AS WELL AS AZZ018-037 BELOW 4000
FEET.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ006 BELOW 4000 FEET.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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