777
FXUS65 KFGZ 301938
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1238 PM MST THU JUL 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT ARE CURRENTLY
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
ARIZONA. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR,
LIKELY REACHING THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR. MONSOON
MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO START MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE STILL
PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA, WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, AS THE HIGH TO OUR
EAST MOVES WEST AND STRENGTHENS. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO EAST, AND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. OVERALL
COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT IF ANY STORMS START TO
BACK-BUILD, THIS WILL CREATED LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLOW DOWN OF THE
MONSOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS OVER ARIZONA.
THIS WILL CAUSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SOAR, WITH MANY AREAS
REACHING THE WARMEST READING SO FAR THIS YEAR. EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND CANYON, BELOW 4000 FT
TODAY, AND STARTING 10 AM MST/11 AM MDT FRIDAY, FOR YAVAPAI AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES BELOW 4000 FT, AS WELL FOR MARBLE AND GLEN
CANYON, INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGE, AND OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE
CANYONS, INCLUDING THE CITY OF SEDONA. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WAS EXTENDED TODAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA,
STARTING AT 10 AM MST/11 AM MDT SATURDAY, WHEN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105. CURRENTLY, ALL
HEAT WARNINGS ARE SET TO END 8 PM MST/9 PM MST SUNDAY.
MAX DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START DECREASING NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD
THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME
GUIDANCE HAS THE HAPPENING AS SOON AS MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS DELAY
THIS CLOSER TO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SLOWER TRANSITION COULD LEAD
TO THE HEAT PRODUCTS BEING EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE A
FASTER TRANSITION WOULD FAVOR THE CURRENT SUNDAY EVENING
EXPIRATION. THESE FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND A WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON
WHICH TREND IS MORE LIKELY BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 30/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 31/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 19Z-03Z. WINDS SW-W 5-15KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 31/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 02/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE 18Z-03Z EACH DAY NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDS VRB 5-15KTS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS BECOME
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15% DESERTS TO 20-30%
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, DROPPING TO 7% DESERTS TO 20% MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HOT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A COOLING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY. DRY WITH THE ONLY
AREA SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STORM CHANCES START TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE
RIM ON TUESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES
7-20% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 10-25% TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ FRIDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ005-018-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ006.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR AZZ009-010-012>014-040.
PUBLIC...SCHANK
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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