084
FXUS65 KFGZ 011124
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
424 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DOWNTICK IN MONSOONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED,
POSSIBLY THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR. A COOLING TREND AND A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
OUR DOWNTICK IN MONSOONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA. THIS DOWNTICK WILL BE DRIVEN BY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CAPPING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, COMBINED
WITH PW DROPPING TO THE 20TH-40TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. ACTIVITY WILL NOT SHUT OFF COMPLETELY, STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA EACH
DAY.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HEAT. THE DECREASE
IN MOISTURE PLUS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AT 500 MB WILL LEAD TO THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. LOW ELEVATION AREAS SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON
AND GLEN/MARBLE CANYON WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS APPROACH OR EXCEED
110 F. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THESE AREAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL MONDAY, WITH THE GRAND CANYON HEAT WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UP TO 100-105 F. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY. BE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND
IF YOU CAN!
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND
AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, AND GUIDANCE
VARIES ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE TREND IS FOR PW TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ACTIVE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 01/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 02/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF A KFLG-KSOW-KJTC LINE FROM 19Z TO 03Z.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OTHERWISE, WINDS
VRB 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 02/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 04/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF KSOW/KJTC. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OTHERWISE, WINDS VRB 5-15
KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
VERY HOT, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM RH GENERALLY
10-20%, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AND
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AND
EXPANDING WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST AT 5-15 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ005-
018-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ009-010-012>014-040.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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