877
FXUS65 KFGZ 020512
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY, WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DRYING TREND, THOUGH MOISTURE
DOESN'T LOOK TO FULLY ABATE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED EACH DAY, REMAINING FOCUSED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
EACH DAY. STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS DWINDLING IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING EACH
DAY.
WITH THE DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY, WE WILL SEE INCREASING HEAT
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE, LIKELY THE HOTTEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON MAY SEE THE HEAT CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH, WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS.
THE HIGH STARTS TO ELONGATE ON SUNDAY AND IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS ANY APPROACHING TROUGHS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SHIFT
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OR THE WEST AND EACH WILL HAVE DIFFERENT
IMPACTS FOR THE REGION. A MORE WESTERLY SHIFT WOULD MEAN DRIER AND
HOTTER CONDITIONS, WHILE A NORTHERLY SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL INCREASING
MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH MEANS
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
MORE ACTIVE MONSOON AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...SUNDAY 02/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 03/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 10-15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 03/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 05/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS 18Z TO 03Z EACH DAY NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-15KTS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-15 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES 5-15% DESERTS,
15-25% MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLING DOWN BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. MONSOON COVERAGE INCREASES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME WINDS GENERALLY SW-W AT
5-15 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, 7-25% TUESDAY, 10-35% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ005-
018-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ009-010-
012>014-040.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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