281
FXUS65 KFGZ 021719
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1019 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK, EXPECT HOT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
OUR PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT DECREASED MONSOONAL ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS
PARKED OVER ARIZONA. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HIGH IS WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY, NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRIER AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WE ARE NOT TOTALLY DRIED OUT, SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FLAGSTAFF AND EASTWARD,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAINS TO BE THE HEAT. SOME
LOCATIONS SAW THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR ON
SATURDAY, AND A FEW DAILY RECORDS WERE BROKEN. WITH THE HIGH
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
ENOUGH FOR THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS AND AVOID PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IF YOU CAN!
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER, AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONSTRAINED HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. THE SLIGHT COOLING TREND ALSO CONTINUES, AND MOST HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE OVER BY TUESDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES AT PHANTOM
RANCH LOOK TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH, AND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
THE GRAND CANYON BELOW 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EXACT PLACEMENT. CLUSTERS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WETTER SCENARIO
WHERE THE HIGH IS CENTERED MORE TO OUR NORTH, OR A DRIER SCENARIO
WHERE THE HIGH IS CENTERED MORE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE EXACT DETAILS TO CHANGE. BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES!
AVIATION...SUNDAY 02/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 03/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z, WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS W-NW 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 03/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 05/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z EACH DAY. WINDS SW-W 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
HOT WITH LOW-GRADE MONSOONAL
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
DAYTIME WINDS ARE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON SUNDAY, THEN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST ON MONDAY. MINIMUM RH IS 10-20% DESERTS, 20-
30% MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES
AND EXPANDS WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAYTIME WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AT 5-15 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ005-
018-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ009-010-
012>014-040.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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