326
FXUS65 KFGZ 022335
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 PM MST SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY. HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA, WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FIND ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BUT THE
MOISTURE ISN'T FULLY SCOURED OUT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY FOCUSED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DWINDLING IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NEAR TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GRAND
CANYON IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND
CANYON MAY SEE THE HEAT CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH, WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS.
THE HIGH ELONGATES AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS BUT IT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPRESS ANY APPROACHING TROUGHS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER ARIZONA, ALLOWING FOR DAILY CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HIGH
ENDS UP, WITH SOME MODELS SHIFTING THE HIGH DIRECTLY NORTH AND
OTHERS MAKING A SLIGHT WESTERLY SHIFT. EACH SOLUTION COMES WITH SOME
DIFFERENT IMPACTS FOR THE REGION. A MORE WESTERLY SHIFT WOULD MEAN
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS, WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT WOULD
SIGNAL INCREASING MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE END, THE POSITION OF
THE HIGH WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS OUR AREA. STAY
TUNED AS THE SCENARIO UNFOLDS IN THE COMING DAYS!
AVIATION...MONDAY 03/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 04/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY, WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS W-NW 10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 04/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 06/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SW-W
10-20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS SW-W 10-20 MPH. MINIMUM
RH IS 10-20% DESERTS, 20-30% MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD WITH
AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS,
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID AND LOW ELEVATION DESERTS OF
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES DURING THE EVENINGS. DAYTIME WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AT 5-15 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ005-
018-037-038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR AZZ009-010-
012>014-040.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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