357
FXUS65 KFGZ 050530
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 PM MST FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WESTERN HALF
REMAINING DRY. ON SUNDAY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE
BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE DRIES OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF REMAINS DRY.
DISCUSSION
MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER OVER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
THE EARLY SEASON TROUGH PARKED OVER THE WEST COAST. IT'S BROUGHT
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING WHICH AS SHOWN ON THE 18Z SOUNDING
PUTS A PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
DESPITE HAVING SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WHICH HAS
PRODUCED SOME LOW ELEVATION CUMULUS FIELDS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY WEST OF I-17 AND US-89 FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LIKE THE WHITES, CHUSKAS AND EAST
RIM DON'T HAVE AS MUCH CAPPING SO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AS CAPPING KEEPS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE DRY, WITH MORE MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
NOW FOR SUNDAY, HOW THINGS PLAY OUT DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THE WEST COAST TROUGH CAN TAP FROM HURRICANE MARIE. RIGHT NOW A
MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER ARIZONA,
INCLUDING THE GRAND CANYON REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND THAT TROUGH COULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THIS
AREA. WPC DOES HAVE THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS TO SEE HOW MUCH OF
A FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE. THE REST OF THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS IT'LL BE EAST OF THE BAND OF
MOISTURE. SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MAY REMAIN IN FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA, ENOUGH FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA AND THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL START FLEXING
BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS US AGAIN. THIS WILL DRAW IN MONSOON MOISTURE
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BRINGING THAT REGION SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BY WEDNESDAY ONWARD IT FLEXES
WEST ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO MOST
OF THE STATE.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 05/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/06Z
EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA AFT 18Z-20Z SATURDAY. SFC WINDS
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN S-SW10-20KTS AFT 18Z SATURDAY, THEN LIGHT
AGAIN AFT 02Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 06/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 08/06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA EACH DAY. ACTIVITY IS
MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY BOTH DAYS, AS WELL AS MAINLY
WEST OF A KCMR-KPGA LINE ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME SFC WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN EXPANDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY, MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SPREADS AREA WIDE.
BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BIT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MONSOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 5-15
MPH EACH DAY, THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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