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FXUS65 KFGZ 051020
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 AM MST SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING BACK WESTWARD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RIDGING TO OUR EAST. THIS
SETUP KEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AS MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE IS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BRINGING CLOUDS AND LIMITING
SURFACE HEATING. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY IN
NORTHWEST AZ, IS GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE MARIE
LOCATED AROUND 700 MILES WEST OF THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
FOR TODAY, MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF NV/UT BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY JUST BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO
TREND FARTHER WESTWARD AND IS NOW FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
TO BE FROM SOUTHERN CA TO LAS VEGAS AND INTO UT, POSSIBLY JUST
BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY WHERE THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.
MONDAY - THE NORTHWEST US LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE
AZ/NM LINE WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK - AN ELONGATED RIDGE COVERING MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS RIDGE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO SHIFT BACK INTO
OUR REGION. STORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, HIGHEST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 05/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA AFTER 18Z-20Z SATURDAY, ENDING
FOR MOST AREAS BY 02Z WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT NW OF KGCN-KPGA. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S-SW 10-20 KTS FROM
18Z TO 02Z, THEN LIGHT AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 06/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 08/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SUNDAY, WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE WEST OF A KCMR-KPGA LINE AND OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY.
MAINLY DRY MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA OVER SOUTHERN
APACHE COUNTY. DAYTIME WINDS MAINLY SW-W 5-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BIT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MONSOON ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 5-
15 MPH EACH DAY, THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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