864
FXUS65 KFGZ 061103
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
403 AM MST SUN SEP 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING BACK WESTWARD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY,
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER OUR
REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE MARIE (WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA).
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROSE FROM 0.73" FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
0.93" SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUNDING HERE AT BELLEMONT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD
TOWARD A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD, MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE MORE STEADY BAND OF RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SET UP WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND INTO FAR NW ARIZONA/SW
UTAH. THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND HIGHER VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY, CLOSEST TO THE MAIN BAND, WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LIMITING INSTABILITY, SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH LABOR
DAY, THE NORTHWEST US LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
INTRODUCE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOST OF OUR AREA WITH RAIN
CHANCES LESS THAN 10%. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS
AND A 30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS CONTINUES.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM ARIZONA TO THE EAST COAST TUE/WED BUT THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THURSDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE EAST STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 20-50% CHANCES FOR
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FORECAST TREND OF BUILDING
THE HIGH RIGHT OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEST OF US
BY FRIDAY CONTINUES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A DOWNTURN IN STORM
CHANCES ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES - THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
UNCERTAIN SO WATCH FOR UPDATES FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 06/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 07/12Z
EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY BKN-OVC CIGS 09-13 KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH AROUND 02Z, MAINLY WEST OF A KCMR-
KPGA LINE, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE 18Z-02Z. DAYTIME
WINDS SW-W 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 07/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 09/12Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MONDAY IN SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES, SPREADING NW TO NEAR KFLG BY TUESDAY. DAYTIME WINDS
MAINLY SW-W 5-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE MARIE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GRAND CANYON REGION, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. ON MONDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. WINDS SW-W 5-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MONSOON ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS S-
SW 5-15 MPH EACH DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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