548
FXUS65 KFGZ 080528
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1028 PM MST MON SEP 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING BACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY,
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER
ARIZONA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
RESULT, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THEREFORE, AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER THE COMING DAYS. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, AND ISOLATED IN
NATURE, AS WARMING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK TO MAINLY BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND
POTENTIALLY THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXTEND WESTWARD SOME THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
LESSENS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATER IN THE WEEK, THE DETAILS IN THE
FORECAST GET A LITTLE FUZZY. THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS
FAIRLY TRANSIENT, ONCE AGAIN MOVING BACK EASTWARD AND SETTING UP
OVER NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZIER, AND COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
SET IN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE LOOSENS
IT'S GRIP.
THE TRICKY PART HERE RESULTS FROM UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TROUGH MAY GO. A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN WOULD
RESULT IN A DAY OF ACTIVE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SUPPRESSING MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. IF IT WERE TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE MONSOONAL PATTERN, THUS KEEPING ACTIVE CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SEEM TO FAVOR KEEPING A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE, WHILE THE EPS AND CMCE BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR A
STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 08/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 09/06Z
PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM
19-03Z, MAINLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING W-NW 5-15 KTS
FROM 18Z-03Z.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 09/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 11/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SCT SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, ISOLD
ELSEWHERE. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND SPREADS WESTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE VARIABLE 5-10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY,
TURNING W 5-15 KTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EXPECT LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS S-SW 5-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM RH'S EACH AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 15% IN
THE LOWER DESERTS TO 30-40% IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS S-SW 5-15 MPH EACH
DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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