951
FXUS65 KFGZ 090445
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN ARIZONA
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP BY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
COOLING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE, WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT TO LIMIT MUCH OF THE
STORM POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WHILE MOISTURE DOES REMAIN, PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00
INCHES, THE THREAT IS NOT TOTALLY REMOVED. DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE
SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
FAIRLY MINOR, AND ISOLATED IN NATURE, AS THE CAP ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
FURTHER INCREASE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVER THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS, TO NEAR 1.40-1.50 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. GUIDANCE
AS OF NOW HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY, INITIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS LOOK TO THEN
MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH,
POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. THIS IN TURN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED
FLASH FLOOD RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, THE RIDGE BECOMES
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW,
AS THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP IN THE EXACT
SETUP. HOWEVER, MORE OF THE EPS, CMCE, AND GEFS MEMBERS DO SEEM TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, A DOWNWARD TICK IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THING
COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE. OTHERWISE, BREEZIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO SET IN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
LOOSENS IT'S GRIP.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 09/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 10/06Z
PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR FROM 18Z-03Z, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT,
BECOMING W-NW 5-15 KTS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 10/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12/06Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SPREAD TO MOST OF NORTHERN AZ
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE W 5-15 KTS
ON THURSDAY THEN SW-W 10-20 KTS ON FRIDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS, PLAN ON NORTHWEST
WINDS, 5 TO 15 MPH, ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEST WINDS, 10 TO 20
MPH, ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE 10 TO 15% IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND 20 TO 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE NORTH, WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, 20 TO 30 MPH, EACH
AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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