076
FXUS65 KFGZ 091055
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
355 AM MST WED SEP 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP BY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
COOLING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK OVER ARIZONA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER BY
THURSDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
BUT FURTHER NORTH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGION. IN ADDITION, A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM HAS UPPED THE CHANCES FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES, WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE
HIGH BUILDS WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S AND REACHING 95 TO 105 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND..A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA HIGH CENTER
EASTWARD. IT APPEARS MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
PASSING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. THIS USUALLY
MEANS A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IT WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH STARTING FRIDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITES STATES. THE QUESTION, WILL
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP WITH MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING BACK
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA OR WILL A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP? LOOKING AT THE SPECTRUM OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS BOTH SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE. WE'LL KNOW MORE A TIME
DRAWS NEARER.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 09/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 10/12Z
PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOSTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z-03Z, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS BECOMING W TO NW 5-15 KTS BETWEEN 18Z-02Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 10/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12/12Z...PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SPREADING
TO MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS W 5-15 KTS ON THURSDAY THEN SW TO W 10-20 KTS ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AS
WELL AS IN THE AREAS OF THE WHITE AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH TODAY, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEST WINDS 10-20
MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH WILL RANGE FROM 10-20% PERCENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND 20-30% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PASSING
WEAK DISTURBANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE HAIL IN SPOTS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON, REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES
AT NIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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