265
FXUS65 KFGZ 092031
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
131 PM MST WED SEP 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN COOLING OFF OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE IS BRINGING DRIER AIR TO AREAS NORTH OF I-40 WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN TO THE 30S/LOW 40S. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
TODAY'S ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL, DISSIPATING BY AROUND
SUNSET IF NOT BEFORE. BY THURSDAY - THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN THE DRIER
AIR MOVING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES,
WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY - A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, IN THE 30-60% RANGE BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES FALL TO 10-30% BY SATURDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - TROUGHING
IN THE NORTHWEST US WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS REACHING 25-35 MPH. THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE NEARBY THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING WHERE IT WILL SET UP. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAILY STORM CHANCES, HIGHEST IN EASTERN AZ AND TAPERING
OFF TO 10% OR LESS IN WESTERN AZ. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 09/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 10/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA 19Z-02Z INVOF
KSOW/KJTC, AND POTENTIALLY KFLG/KCMR AS WELL. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS W-NW 5-15 KTS THROUGH 02Z, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 10/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KPRC-KJTC LINE ON
THURSDAY, THEN BECOMING LIKELY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AZ ON FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND +TS. DAYTIME WINDS W-NW 5-15 KTS ON THURSDAY,
BECOMING W/SW 10-20 KTS ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THURSDAY, BECOMING
SCATTERED ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS
WEST/NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-20
MPH ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING ON 15-25 MPH ON SUNDAY, THEN SUBSIDING TO 10-20 MPH FOR
MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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