869
FXUS65 KFGZ 240541
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1041 PM MST WED SEP 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO ARIZONA, AS DEEP
AND LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES IN NEW MEXICO, BUT OUTFLOWS
ARE PUSHING HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 18Z KFGZ SOUNDING INDICATES RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY AND SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY PROBABLY
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BITE.
MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAYBE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NW. DRIER WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS FOR SATURDAY AND MAYBE
SUNDAY.
THEN, ALL EYES ON THE SUB-TROPICS AS WE WAIT AND SEE OF ONE OF THESE
HURRICANES WILL INDUCE A SURGE OR PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTENING.
IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL AT THIS TIME, BUT THE DOOR IS
DEFINITELY OPEN FOR IT TO HAPPEN. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 24/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 25/06Z
MAINLY
VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA
OVERNIGHT, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL
IN WESTERN AZ. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 19Z TO 01Z OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MOST NUMEROUS NEAR AND W OF THE KGCN-KFLG-KSOW
LINE, THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD 01Z TO 03Z. SLIGHT POTENTIAL THAT
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY IN
EASTERN AZ. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. WINDS NE-SE 5-10 KTS 18Z TO 02Z, THEN BECOMING VRB OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 25/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/06Z...MAINLY VFR, WITH
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR TS. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, AND S-W
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO
10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...SCHANK
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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