554
FXUS65 KFGZ 241021
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
321 AM MST THU SEP 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AT 230 AM, THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM AROUND PRESCOTT TO CROWN KING,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE IS A DISTINCT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING, AND THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA, WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE (30-50%)
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND 10-30% TO THE
NORTH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHING, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES LATER INTO THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE LOW. THIS IS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-17/US89
CORRIDOR. WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
THE MAIN THREAT WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL BRING A DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING STORM FREE AT THIS TIME AS EVEN DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY - A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES (HURRICANE POLO FORECAST TO
BE OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA AT THIS TIME AND TS ODALYS MUCH FARTHER
WEST) WILL BE PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEPTH/SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AS WELL
AS THE LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW HEAVY
THE RAINFALL MIGHT BE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE PLACED.
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH COMBINING WITH THE MOISTURE WOULD NEED
TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AROUND 10-20% OF THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE LATEST 00Z RUNS
SHOW A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL (1-2"+) FOR OUR AREA, THOUGH A LARGE
MAJORITY SHOW AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL. WE'LL NEED TO WAIT A COUPLE
MORE DAYS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SO STAY TUNED. RAIN
CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THEN DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 24/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 25/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 15Z ALONG/SOUTH OF KPRC-KPAN,
THEN SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 19Z TO 03Z OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, MOST NUMEROUS NEAR AND W OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN EASTERN AZ, MAINLY EAST OF A KPAN-0V7 LINE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 35
KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WINDS NE-SE 5-10
KTS 18Z TO 02Z, THEN BECOMING VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 25/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/12Z...MAINLY VFR, WITH
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR TS. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, AND S-W 5-15
KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO
10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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