772
FXUS65 KFGZ 250516
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1016 PM MST THU SEP 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AT 230 PM, THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE (40-60%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS
AND 10-30% TO THE NORTH. THIS IS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-17/US89
CORRIDOR. WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
THE MAIN THREAT WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL BRING A DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING STORM FREE AT THIS TIME AS EVEN DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY - A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES (HURRICANE POLO FORECAST TO
BE OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA AT THIS TIME AND TS ODALYS MUCH FARTHER
WEST) WILL BE PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEPTH/SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AS WELL
AS THE LOCATION OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW HEAVY
THE RAINFALL MIGHT BE AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE PLACED.
CONFIDENCE HAS EDGED ENOUGH HIGHER TO PLACE A SLIGHT EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH COMBINING WITH THE MOISTURE WOULD NEED TO LINE UP JUST
RIGHT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AROUND
20-30% OF THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE LATEST 00Z RUNS SHOW A HEAVY
RAIN SIGNAL (1-2"+) FOR OUR AREA, THOUGH ALMOST ALL SHOW AT LEAST
SOME RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, THEN DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY
MID WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 25/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 26/06Z
MAINLY VFR.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A KPAN-KINW
LINE. ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER
19Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TS. WINDS VRB 5-10 KTS, BECOMING W-S AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 26/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 28/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
THEREAFTER. DAYTIME WINDS S 5-10 KTS EACH DAY, BECOMING VRB
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIM AND MOUNTAINS
OF EASTERN ARIZONA. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE SW 5-10 MPH
ON FRIDAY, S-SW 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT THE
AREA COULD SEE SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME DRYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SW 10-20 MPH ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SHIFTING NW-N 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...ZANKER
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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