084
FXUS65 KFGZ 251722
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1022 AM MST FRI SEP 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS EASTERN AZ THIS MORNING, THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL RETURN
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER AZ VISIBLE IN
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA AND
SOUTHERN NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS
TO MOVE PAST AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN FOR LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY. BY SATURDAY, A MUCH DRIER AND CAPPED AIRMASS WILL
DROP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO.
WE MAY SEE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
CA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY, THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A PAIR
OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS (HURRICANE POLO AND TROPICAL STORM ODALYS) WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE ANY MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL, AND THE CURRENT EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC PUTS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ IN THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY BY MONDAY. HOWEVER PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND WILL HINGE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE FEATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, LREF CLUSTERS HIGHLIGHT A
LOWER END PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WHERE THE TROUGH FOLLOWS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND NORTHERN TRAJECTORY, AND A HIGHER END SCENARIO WHERE
THE TROUGH IS DEEPER AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AZ.
NEVERTHELESS, VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS SOME PRECIPITATION
RETURNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AS
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH, THEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MONDAY-TUESDAY. THERE IS ROOM
FOR THE DETAILS TO CHANGE, SO WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CHECK BACK IN
FUTURE FORECAST PERIODS!
BESIDES PRECIPITATION, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 25/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 26/18Z
MAINLY VFR.
ISOLATED -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 01Z. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. WINDS S-W
AT 5-10 KTS, BECOMING VRB AFTER 01Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 26/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 28/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
THEREAFTER. DAYTIME WINDS S 5-15 KTS ON SATURDAY, THEN S-SW 10-20
KTS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MOSTLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE SW 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY, S-SW 5-15
MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. BESIDES RAIN, EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY WINDS. WINDS S-SW 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, SHIFTING NW-N 10-20 MPH ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...ZANKER
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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