862
FXUS65 KFGZ 252250
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST FRI SEP 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AN INCOMING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA IS EJECTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL A FEW RESIDUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN AND ALONG WITH A FAST MOVING RIDGE, EXPECT A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO LATE SEPTEMBER
AVERAGES.
BY SUNDAY A STRONG WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AREA AND WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES ODALYS AND POLO WITH THE FIRST SHOWER
CHANCES MOVING IN AROUND MIDDAY. THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SHEAR FROM THE INCOMING TROUGH, SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY HIT SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WPC
DOES HAVE THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND MAY NOT FULLY
EXIT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING SO TUESDAY'S WEATHER MAY BE
A REPEAT OF WHAT GOES ON MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN THIS IS A DYNAMIC SITUATION THAT IS SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING TOWARDS A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD DRY AIR PUSHES IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERLIES WILL TAKE OVER
AS THE DOMINANT FORCE KEEPING DRY AIR IN AND THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT. LOOK FOR DRY SUNNY DAYS AND CRISP NIGHTS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 26/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 27/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH VRB WINDS 5-10 KTS, BECOMING S/SE AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 27/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 29/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED IN SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA THEREAFTER. DAYTIME WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND RH IN THE TEENS AT THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BE S-SW 5-15 MPH SATURDAY, 10-20 MPH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN START TO DECLINE FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, A MODERATE
RISK FOR BURN SCARS. BESIDES RAIN, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY WINDS. WINDS S-SW 10-20 MPH ON MONDAY, SHIFTING NW-N 10-20
MPH ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...ZANKER
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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