004
FXUS65 KFGZ 292103
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
203 PM MST TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ALONG WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, IS EXPECTED TODAY, CONTINUING THE HEIGHTENED RISK OF
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER A VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA
AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO STREAMING NORTHWARD. CONTINUED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN END. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS FAR, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 2.50 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 0.50 - 1.00 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THIS
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IS SATURATING THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND WILL LEAD TO A FASTER FLOOD RESPONSE WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA, AND THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED WITH POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN. FURTHER WEST, ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW
HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL INTERACT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF
40-60+ KTS WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS (LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND).
LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA, MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THIS IS WHY THE
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THERE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAINFALL AND TROUGH
PASSAGE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS COLD SPOTS MAY
DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN A DRIER PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 29/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 30/18Z
THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF A KGCN-KFLG-
KPAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FURTHER WEST, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BRINGING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TONIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED -TSRA
AFT 06Z PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL LIFR POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FOG.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 30/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 02/18Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A
K0V7-KKINW LINE WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEDNESDAY
BECOMING W/NW AROUND 5-15 KTS, DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
TO EASTERN ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AROUND
10-20 MPH, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
EXPECT DAYTIME WINDS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 5-15 MPH,
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AZZ004>007-009>015-039-040.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008-016>018-037-
038.
PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page