840
FXUS65 KFGZ 301118
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
418 AM MST WED SEP 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH 5 AM MST THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AND CLOSE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY EXITING
ARIZONA. RAINFALL DURATION AND INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
HIGH AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE RISK FOR
FLOODING, THOUGH RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVING EASTWARD,
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO NOW MOSTLY BEING LIFTED
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM MST THIS MORNING AS RAINFALL INTENSITY
AND DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE RIVER FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER AS SURFACE WATER DRAIN
WITHIN THE BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
RAINFALL AND TROUGH PASSAGE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COOL
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME HIGH
ELEVATIONS COLD SPOTS MAY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN A DRIER PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 30/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 01/12Z
STRATIFORM
RAIN, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE THROUGH 18Z, AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THIS LINE. AFTER 18Z, ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD, THEN COMING TO
AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING (AFTER 01Z). AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FOG. WINDS SHIFTING TO
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 01/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST. WINDS N-NE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING, WHILE WESTERN ARIZONA WILL START TO
DRY OUT. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST, FOLLOWING THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW, THE RISK FOR FLOODING AND
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL DECREASE AS DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. WINDS NW-N
10-20 MPH TODAY, N-NE 5-10 MPH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
EXPECT DAYTIME WINDS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 5-15 MPH, LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AZZ004>007-009>015-039-040.
PUBLIC...SCHANK
AVIATION...SCHANK
FIRE WEATHER...SCHANK
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page